Biden gains edge in Arizona over Trump and has big lead in Minnesota

Every four years it can seem like the path to the presidency runs through the same list of well-trodden battleground states. But this time, we’re on some newer turf: Democrats are contesting some states in the fast-growing Sun Belt — notably Arizona —which has been in the Republican column all […] Read more »

The 8 states where 2020 will be won or lost

Minnesota’s Iron Range. Wisconsin’s “WOW” counties. Suburban Charlotte. The city of Philadelphia. Each is a shorthand for the building blocks of victory in the swing states that will determine the presidential election. At the traditional, post-Labor Day start of the fall campaign, POLITICO is zeroing in on eight critical battlegrounds […] Read more »

Democrats have voter registration advantage in four states

Even before the COVID-19 outbreak and the economic slump, President Donald Trump faced a big challenge in his 2020 re-election effort: a changing American electorate. Young voters have been a challenge for Trump since he entered politics (he lost voters under 40 by double digits in 2016) and every year […] Read more »

Is Kenosha a Warning for the Biden Campaign?

On Wednesday night I remotely conducted two focus groups, one in North Carolina and one in Arizona. The demographics of the groups were the same. Both consisted of 2016 Trump voters. Both were composed of six white, college-educated women (those prized suburban women you hear so much about). And both […] Read more »