Key Points• We’re continuing our series of looking at how the most vote-rich counties in a state vote versus those that make up the rest of the state by moving to the Southwest.• The region contains the key swing states of Arizona and Nevada, both of which are dominated by […] Read more »
The election-fraud crew loves polls now
Republican Kari Lake came up short in her bid for governor of Arizona by a narrow margin last November, landing about 17,000 votes behind out of 2.6 million cast. … On Friday, though, Lake and other allies of Trump seized on a new poll to argue that she hadn’t lost; […] Read more »
Why Fox’s Call on Arizona, Which Was Right, Was Still Wrong
… Was the Fox call the result of the most sophisticated and accurate modeling, or more like being “right” when calling heads in a coin flip? It appears to be the latter — a lucky and dangerous guess — based on a review of televised statements by the Fox News […] Read more »
National Swing Women Voters Executive Summary
Funded by Horizon Strategies and directed entirely by the two companies, we took an in-depth look at two small, but consequential groups in the electorate: Republican women who did not vote straight party in 2022 and Independent women who voted for candidates of both parties. CONTINUED Nicole McCleskey (Public Opinion […] Read more »
‘THE central issue’: How the fall of Roe v. Wade shook the 2022 election
… On Election Day, voters in critical states like Michigan and Pennsylvania ranked abortion — not inflation or crime — as the most important issue in the midterms, according to exit polls. The red wave never arrived. Instead, Democrats gained a seat in the Senate and Republicans, badly underperforming expectations, […] Read more »
Sinema aligns with independents. Smart!
Party switchers always make news, and Kyrsten Sinema’s decision to leave the Democratic Party for the independent middle ground has sent shock waves through what was thought to be a settled Senate. … Her surprise announcement reflects what has been a largely overlooked political milestone for independents this year. The […] Read more »