There was every reason to expect a close election. Instead, Tuesday’s resounding victory for abortion rights supporters in Kansas offered some of the most concrete evidence yet that the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade has shifted the political landscape. The victory, by a 59-41 margin in a […] Read more »
Reassessing the Race for the Senate
Key Points• In an election where Republicans are banking on the environment while Democrats are banking on differences in candidate quality, Republicans are relying on a very inexperienced group of candidates.• Compared to 2014, the last time Republicans flipped the Senate, the party’s non-incumbent candidates are incredibly green.• Democrats, meanwhile, […] Read more »
Who gave Democrats the edge on the generic ballot?
Since May 2022, Republicans have lost a slight edge on the generic ballot. Analysis of the FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos tracking poll suggests that following the Dobbs decision, a segment of Biden’s 2020 base who were previously uninvested in the midterms now say they are likely to vote for a Democratic candidate. … […] Read more »
Why Abortion Is Becoming A Winning Issue For Democrats
On Tuesday, we got our first test of how potent an issue abortion might be for Democrats this fall. In a state that overwhelmingly voted for then-President Donald Trump in 2020, a ballot initiative clarifying that Kansas’s state constitution does in fact protect abortion won by double digits. What’s going […] Read more »
Democrats Might Avoid a Midterm Wipeout
If Democrats avoid the worst outcome in November’s midterm elections, the principal reason will likely be the GOP’s failure to reverse its decline in white-collar suburbs during the Donald Trump era. That’s a clear message from yesterday’s crowded primary calendar, which showed the GOP mostly continuing to nominate Trump-style culture-war […] Read more »
Dems Gain Slightly in Congress Support
The latest Monmouth University Poll finds the Democrats making small gains in preference for Congressional control and the year-long slide in President Joe Biden’s job rating appears to have stabilized. The economy remains a driving force in the midterm elections, but it is not the only issue of importance. Democrats […] Read more »