… In Arizona, Michigan and Nevada, Republican primary voters nominated candidates campaigning on Mr. Trump’s election lies for secretary of state, the office that in 40 states oversees the election system. In all three, those candidates lost. The rout eased the immediate concern that strident partisans who embraced conspiracy theories […] Read more »
Will Trump Succeed? Assessing his 2022 record and 2024 chances
Key Points• Donald Trump’s bid for a third Republican presidential nomination opens the 2024 presidential election.• The former president achieved only limited victories in the 2022 national and state elections.• But the structure of the Republican party provides him with many institutional advantages in the nomination race. CONTINUED Gerald Pomper, […] Read more »
What to Watch in 2023
Even as we look ahead to the new year, we can be assured that the political media focus will be trained, as it has for the last five years, on Donald Trump—his continuing legal and political troubles, the ‘reckoning’ within the GOP about the former president’s role in the party’s […] Read more »
‘THE central issue’: How the fall of Roe v. Wade shook the 2022 election
… On Election Day, voters in critical states like Michigan and Pennsylvania ranked abortion — not inflation or crime — as the most important issue in the midterms, according to exit polls. The red wave never arrived. Instead, Democrats gained a seat in the Senate and Republicans, badly underperforming expectations, […] Read more »
The beginning of the end for Donald Trump? Probably.
… Like other political analysts, I have come to believe over the past few years that a large chunk of the GOP — maybe a third or even more — retains its allegiance to Trump, and that will not change. But over the past two midterms (2018 and 2022), the […] Read more »
We Asked Americans To Explain Their 2022 Votes — And How They’re Thinking About 2024
The 2022 midterms are now in the rearview mirror, but Americans have only begun to process the ramifications on politics and government. … With all of that in mind, we’re wrapping up our FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos panel survey by looking at which issues drove Americans’ votes in the midterm election as well […] Read more »