I’m cutting to the chase: We have no idea if polls are overestimating Democrats this year. I could spend this column trying to read a crystal ball, pretending I have some sort of special insight, but I don’t, and there are plenty of others doing that. We’ve gotten better this […] Read more »
Democrats Must Still Close On The Cost-Of-Living
The Democrats have lost ground in this survey from +3 overall margin to even in this survey — and to -2 in the likely electorate. That is driven by Democrats not addressing the top issue, cost of living, where they lost 3 points to be 3 points down and Republicans […] Read more »
Voters’ message to next Congress: Be more effective, fix the economy
“Be more effective” and “fix the economy” were two of the leading messages voters surveyed in a new NBC News poll said when asked to send a message to candidates who will be elected in November’s midterm elections. Voters were allowed to give open-ended responses, which pollsters then categorized into […] Read more »
There are a ton of midterm election polls. Here’s a guide for how to read them.
Pre-election polls came in for a drubbing following the 2020 election after underestimating former president Donald Trump’s vote margin by about five percentage points, the highest error in at least 20 years according to the American Association for Public Opinion Research. One possible cause of 2020 errors was something the […] Read more »
Pennsylvania Senate contest narrows
The party bases are consolidating around their candidates in the Pennsylvania Senate race, now a toss-up contest with Lt. Gov. John Fetterman ahead by two points heading into their debate Tuesday night. He led by five points a month ago. To the extent there is attitudinal change, it’s partly driven […] Read more »
Too close to call? When is a dead heat really a dead heat?
The headline in the Washington Post Metro section on Oct. 22 was clear: “Poll shows Luria, Kiggans in dead heat in final leg of crucial race.” … My immediate take was that, based solely on the poll’s ballot test, Luria is an underdog and in deep trouble. That’s because at […] Read more »