While inflation was clearly at the top of voters’ minds in this year’s midterm elections, the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade played a significant role in motivating key voting blocs that likely contributed to the Democratic party’s stronger-than-expected performance, a new analysis of KFF’s supplemental questions on the […] Read more »
How Polls Did in the 2022 Midterms
Now that the votes are in and mostly counted, how did we do? We’re looking at our results and those of other pollsters. We’re also talking about how poll products like forecasters and aggregators misled people about the likelihood of a red wave. CONTINUED Poll Hub podcast, Marist Institute for […] Read more »
The Accurate Election Polls That No One Believed
… What is clear is that the polls, such as they were, provided a decent view of what was happening in most of the Senate and gubernatorial races. (The House numbers are still incomplete, but the national outcome also seems on track with what the polls predicted.) A week ago, […] Read more »
It wasn’t just “the economy stupid”—it was abortion
… Inflation is unpopular with both parties—there is no pro-inflation and anti-inflation party. In fact, if we’ve learned anything about politics in our polarized time it’s that voters see almost all issues through their partisan lens. Democrats worried about inflation could think that Joe Biden was dealing with it and […] Read more »
The Whackadoodle Factor (with Jonathan Martin)
The midterm special hackathon extravaganza is finally here and we couldn’t think of a better guest to join us than POLITICO’s Politics Bureau Chief and Senior Columnist, Jonathan Martin. The Hacks discuss the results we have from the midterms and breakdown what that means for control of the Senate, House, […] Read more »
David Shor’s (Premature) Autopsy of the 2022 Midterm Elections
The Democratic Party entered the 2022 midterms saddled with a historically unpopular president and an inflationary economy. And yet the party is exiting them as the election’s clear winner. In fact, Democrats put up one of the best midterm performances for an in-power party ever. David Shor believes that he […] Read more »