A prominent GOP poll said Democratic U.S. Sen. Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire would lose her re-election bid to a Republican. Hassan won by 9 percentage points. AP Photo/Charles Krupa W. Joseph Campbell, American University School of Communication Pollsters indulged in breezy self-congratulation in the aftermath of the 2022 midterm […] Read more »
The Pollster Who Predicted a Red Wave Explains Himself
In 2016 and 2020, Trafalgar Group did what many more other pollsters could not: come close to accurately portraying America’s support for Donald Trump. In 2022, the company’s polls once again showed a picture of Republican strength, helping create a widespread impression that a “red wave” was about to crest. […] Read more »
Georgia’s Runoff is the Opening Battle of the 2024 Senate Cycle
Key Points• The looming Georgia Senate runoff is both the final race of 2022 and the first race of 2024, a Senate cycle in which Democrats are playing a lot of defense.• The Democrats could run the Senate more smoothly if they can get a “real” majority of 51.• But […] Read more »
Why no red wave?
History said there should be a red wave. After all, on average, in the 19 midterms between the end of World War II and this one, the White House party lost 27 House seats, and four in the Senate. And these were not average times. The president’s approval rating was […] Read more »
Focus Group Report: Heading into Midterms, Democrats Were Motivated by Republican Attacks on Rights and Democracy
On October 20, 2022, GBAO conducted three focus groups online with Democratic and Independent voters who varied across demographics—age, education, and race. Key takeaways• Democrats are acutely worried about abortion, extremist Republicans, and political division.• Some see economic improvements, while others feel pessimistic.• Discussing the “middle class” further reveals pessimism […] Read more »
The Red Wave Didn’t Just Vanish
On Election Day, a small but crucial percentage of Republican voters deserted their party, casting ballots for Democratic nominees in several elections that featured Trump-backed candidates at the top of the ticket. These Trump-driven defections wrought havoc on Republican ranks. At the extreme, a once-strong Republican Party in Michigan was […] Read more »