The 2021 California gubernatorial recall election is in the final stretch, and there is a clear trend in the data. Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom’s position (i.e. the “no” option on the recall) is strengthening significantly. While there are a few gubernatorial elections featuring a polling error as large as Newsom’s […] Read more »
Unprecedented Texas Abortion Law Meets Long-Term Public Opinion
How does Texas’s new, controversial abortion ban align with Americans’ views on the procedure? Also, why is it so tricky to poll in California? It’s a timely question with Governor Gavin Newsom facing a special recall election next week. Marist Poll Read more »
The Political Winds May Blow Through California and Virginia This Fall
With our federal races becoming increasingly more parliamentary—9 out of 10 voters simply cast either Democratic or Republican votes up and down the ballot—the direction and velocity of the national political winds are becoming increasingly important. So where do we stand today, on Labor Day, 14 months before the 2022 […] Read more »
California: Newsom’s chances of surviving recall are greatly improved, Elder holds big lead in replacement election
The tide of likely voter preferences in this year’s gubernatorial recall election has turned. The latest Berkeley IGS Poll, completed earlier this week among a sample of nearly 10,000 registered voters across California, finds just 38.5% of those most likely to participate in the recall election now intending to vote […] Read more »
Gov. Gavin Newsom has 51% job approval, far ahead of recalled Gov. Gray Davis in 2003
With less than a week to go, Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom appears likely to fend off a recall movement and serve out the remaining months of his gubernatorial term, according to a Suffolk University poll of likely voters taken Sept. 6-7. … In the statewide survey, voters rejected the recall […] Read more »
The California Recall Could Be a Road Map for Democrats
California Governor Gavin Newsom is confronting the toughest challenge Democrats may face in next year’s midterm election—and guiding his party toward a possible solution as the Republican-driven recall against him enters its final days. One key reason the president’s party historically fares so poorly in midterm elections is that its […] Read more »