President Donald Trump’s 2016 win upended much of the conventional wisdom about the U.S. electorate to cobble together a surprising victory. But how much of that remarkable 2016 movement is replicable in 2020, particularly with the demographic changes remaking the United States? A new bipartisan report runs through some of […] Read more »
Why a primary challenge to Trump is likely to fail
Several Republican lawmakers have said it is too early to answer whether they’ll back President Donald Trump in 2020. Yet barring some seismic event, Trump will most likely be their only viable choice. Trump right now is adored by the Republican base. His favorability ratings among Republican voters are up […] Read more »
Choose Your Own Adventure: 2020 Presidential Edition
Not long after a presidential election, conventional wisdom sets in on how the losing party can win four years later. … One school of thought is for Democrats to win back the white, working-class voters that defected from Barack Obama/Bill Clinton to Trump in 2016. The other school, pushed by […] Read more »
Underestimate Trump’s Reelection Odds at Your Own Peril
One might have done better in predicting the 2016 presidential election, or at least in anticipating the very close eventual outcome, by basing a projection of the national popular vote on the findings of several political science models released prior to the election. These models, which were compiled by James […] Read more »
History Suggests Double Trouble for Incumbent Trump
President Donald Trump talks of winning reelection in 2020, and he filed papers to run again back on Inauguration Day. But history suggests the person taking the oath of office 33 months from now will be someone else. If the past is any guide — it often is, of course […] Read more »
Sorting Through the 2020 Democratic Primary Already (Quietly) Underway
As the midterm elections dominate political news coverage these days, the early machinations by prospective 2020 Democratic presidential contenders are quietly well under way. Indeed, staff and consultants are already being hired by many wannabes, and early states are already scoring visits from potential candidates. … Sorting through the names […] Read more »