Democrat Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s upset of Rep. Joe Crowley in New York’s 14th District’s Democratic primary is sending shockwaves through Washington. A lot of people are asking how she pulled it off. Like many shocking victories, there probably isn’t one cause. But a number of the different factors that likely catapulted […] Read more »
For Democrats, 2018 Is the Year of the Woman…and 2020 Too?
… During the rare breaks in the Trump-generated action, media attention has occasionally focused on what has appeared to be a surge in political participation by women, from the well-attended Women’s March of January 2017 to reports of an increase in female campaign donors to studies indicating a rise in […] Read more »
Politics Podcast: A Year Of Mueller
It’s been just over a year since special counsel Robert Mueller began investigating Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election. The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast team takes stock of what he’s uncovered during that time and looks ahead to what could come next. The crew also weighs in on the debate […] Read more »
What If Tariffs Cost Trump The Farm Vote?
In 1977, Jimmy Carter made an improbable journey from Georgia peanut grower to Democratic president in part by playing on his humble roots and receiving support from America’s farmers. Yet this bedrock voting constituency abandoned a fellow farmer to back Ronald Reagan four years later, after Carter punished Moscow for […] Read more »
The big problem with that Gallup poll that shows Trump’s re-election numbers equal to Obama’s
Gallup released new polling this week with an eye-popping headline: Donald Trump’s re-election numbers are very similar to those of Barack Obama in 2010 and Bill Clinton in 1994. Wait, WHAT? The narrative of Trump’s first 15 months in office has been that he is at historic polling lows. Then […] Read more »
Trump’s Re-Elect Figures Similar to Those of Obama, Clinton
U.S. registered voters solidly believe that President Donald Trump does not deserve to be re-elected, by 59% to 37%. The percentage of voters who say Trump deserves re-election is essentially identical to that of Bill Clinton and Barack Obama at the time of the 1994 and 2010 midterm elections, respectively. […] Read more »