Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden is the early leader for the 2020 Democratic Party nomination, a Reuters/Ipsos Election Day opinion poll found, in a field likely to quickly take shape as candidates seek to challenge Republican President Donald Trump. CONT. Ginger Gibson & Doina Chiacu, Reuters Read more »
What Nate Silver’s learned about forecasting elections
This close to an election, who do I want to hear from? Nate Silver, of course. I sat down with the FiveThirtyEight founder and math wizard to talk about how he builds his forecasting models, what they’re saying about 2018, how big the Democrats’ structural disadvantage in the House and […] Read more »
Poll finds Trump’s pro-Israel stance does not sway US Jews
President Donald Trump’s pro-Israel positions have not garnered him support from American Jewish voters, according to a new survey. The poll found that 74 percent of Jews planned to vote for Democratic candidates in November’s midterm elections. The figure corresponds with similar voting patterns in past elections. CONT. Isabel DeBre, […] Read more »
Let Us Overanalyze the First 2020 Democratic Primary Poll
A poll released by CNN asking Democratic voters to express their preferences on potential Democratic presidential candidates shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading a potentially very crowded field. … The first, and most obvious, response to this poll is that it is very early to say much of anything […] Read more »
Why Elizabeth Warren is #1 in our new 2020 rankings
Even before the 2018 election, we already know one of the winners: Women. And Democratic women in particular. … Poll after poll of late suggests that women are not only fired up to vote next month, but are leaning heavily toward Democrats. … The power of women in politics isn’t […] Read more »
In Trump country, Republican candidates this year fall flat
… A number of Republicans running for governor or senator in Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania, including several who hitched their wagon to Trump’s political movement, are behind in polls by double digits, a remarkable turnabout in swing states that were key to the president’s 2016 victory. … The dramatic […] Read more »