Americans are becoming more likely to think President Donald Trump will win a second term in office, while Joe Biden stands atop a crowded field of Democrats perhaps looking to replace him, according to a new CNN Poll conducted by SSRS. CONT. Jennifer Agiesta, CNN Read more »
Democratic hopes of taking the Senate look as dim as ever
… Republican hopes of holding the Senate look as bright as ever. Thanks to clear Republican advantages in North Dakota, Tennessee and Texas in our forecast, the Democratic path to a Senate majority is currently blocked. All of those races are within the margin of error, but they aren’t razor […] Read more »
What Nate Silver’s Worried About
On this week’s episode of my podcast, I Have to Ask, I spoke to Nate Silver, the election forecaster and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com. Below is an edited excerpt from the show. In it, we discuss how the fight over Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination might impact November’s election, the ups […] Read more »
Understanding ‘the white women thing’
Donald Trump likes to brag that most women in America voted for him for president. Like many things the president says, that’s just not true. Most women, 54 percent, voted for Hillary Clinton. However, 52 percent of white women did vote for Trump — and that’s the cohort that drives […] Read more »
The Senate: How 2018 Sets Up 2020
The 2018 Senate races are important not just for determining the majority next January, but also for setting up both parties for the next election. … If Republicans can net a seat or two this year, it would make their position much stronger in 2020, much like their strong showing […] Read more »
The 2018 Impact on the 2020 Democratic Nomination
Talk of Democrats winning the House (and maybe even the Senate), turns quickly to the question of what a divided Congress would mean for legislating and the odds that Democrats will call for President Trump’s impeachment. … After watching him for the last year and a half, this unpredictable and […] Read more »