As the starting-gun sounds in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, many people believe that the Democratic Party is more liberal than it used to be. And they’re right, at least if you go by how rank-and-file Democrats characterize themselves. But, as we will see, this complicates Democrats’ efforts […] Read more »
Who Can Win the Narrow Middle in 2020?
It is striking how many of President Trump supporters I meet who seem largely unconcerned about his chances of reelection. He won a race in 2016 that he wasn’t expected to win, so why not in 2020? This despite the fact that he lost the national popular vote by 2.9 […] Read more »
Introducing The Cook Political Report’s 2020 Electoral College Ratings
Here it is. Our first pass at the 2020 Electoral College ratings. These ratings take into consideration the 2016 and 2018 results as well as what we’ve learned about the political coalitions that currently make-up the Trump and Democratic bases. Obviously, what we don’t know — the political and economic […] Read more »
The 5 Key Constituencies Of The 2020 Democratic Primary
Over the long course of the Republican presidential nomination process in 2015 and 2016, we frequently featured a diagram called “The Republicans’ Five-Ring Circus.” The chart was based on the idea that the GOP essentially consisted of five different constituencies: the establishment wing, the moderate wing, the tea party, libertarians […] Read more »
What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried?
… Is the president in danger of a serious challenge for the 2020 Republican presidential nomination? Right now, I don’t think Trump has too much to worry about. But there are two scenarios in which a primary challenger against Trump would be more viable than they are now — and […] Read more »
The 2020 invisible primary in light of 2016
… The simple fact is that we’re not entirely sure what rules and norms are governing the 2020 invisible primary. That’s not the same as saying that no rules or norms govern it. Do Howard Schultz or Michael Bloomberg or Sally Yates have the same chances of winning the nomination […] Read more »