It is striking how many of President Trump supporters I meet who seem largely unconcerned about his chances of reelection. He won a race in 2016 that he wasn’t expected to win, so why not in 2020? This despite the fact that he lost the national popular vote by 2.9 million and notched razor-thin victories in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan—fewer than 78,000 votes determined the presidency out of 137 million cast. Still, he won then; why not again?
Here are the key questions: Given that Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin effectively determined the presidency, does the fact that Democrats went 6-0 in those three states in U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races in November signal anything? How much did Hillary Clinton matter in those 2016 outcomes? Does it matter that with the highest midterm-election turnout since 1914, Democrats won the popular House vote last year by an 8.6-point margin? CONT.
Charlie Cook