… Voters are generally risk averse, preferring candidates they know over those who may be more exciting but unfamiliar. This holds particularly true for black voters: A study published last year in Public Opinion Quarterly noted that black voters are especially inclined to choose established candidates and efficiently assess contenders […] Read more »
Democrats in Trump districts face split-screen reality on impeachment
While Washington was in a frenzy Wednesday over special counsel Robert S. Mueller III’s first public comments about his investigation and President Trump, 800 miles away, in rural central Illinois, Democratic Rep. Cheri Bustos navigated an alternative political universe. She dedicated a post office to a fallen Marine. She toured […] Read more »
Trump Has Ceded the Middle. Can Democrats Grab It?
It’s hardly novel to see the electorate as split into three groups: one side, the other side, and those in the middle. This presidential election can certainly be seen in this way, though the groups are now a bit asymmetric: The side passionately supporting President Trump is about 35 percent […] Read more »
House 2020: Incumbents Hardly Ever Lose Primaries
… Since the end of World War II, there have been 37 elections for the U.S. House (one every two years). In those 37 elections, an average of 397 House incumbents sought reelection each election year. On average, only six House members failed to secure renomination each election year. In […] Read more »
Bernie Sanders should be out in front in the Democratic primary. So why isn’t he?
It feels as though Bernie Sanders should be winning the 2020 Democratic primary. In 2016, he surprised most observers by getting 43 percent of the primary vote and posting a strong second-place finish to eventual nominee Hillary Clinton. His fundraising numbers were genuinely impressive, and his solid vote total suggested […] Read more »
Democratic National Committee drops Review-Journal poll
The Democratic National Committee dropped the Las Vegas Review-Journal poll from its list of polls used to winnow which presidential candidates qualify for its third and fourth presidential debates. The DNC did not respond to multiple queries from the Review-Journal as to the reasons behind the decision. CONT. Debra J. […] Read more »