They praise his experience. They are hopeful about his general election prospects. He is often their first choice for president. For now. But while Joseph R. Biden Jr. tops the early polls in Iowa, on the ground there are signs that his lead is fragile in the state that kicks […] Read more »
Why One Republican Strategist Wants The Party To Talk More About Socialism
Democrats are trying to figure out a big part of their 2020 election strategy: Which of the more than 20 candidates should be the presidential nominee? Republicans, on the other hand, know who their nominee will be — or at least are almost certain of it — and are planning […] Read more »
Cut From the Debate? It Doesn’t Mean a Candidate Can’t Matter
The Democratic National Committee is soon expected to announce the 20 candidates who qualified for the party’s first presidential debates. One candidate seems likely to come especially close but fall short: Steve Bullock, the governor of Montana. Mr. Bullock is set to miss the cut — along with Seth Moulton […] Read more »
Brace for a Voter-Turnout Tsunami
Signs are growing that voter turnout in 2020 could reach the highest levels in decades—if not the highest in the past century—with a surge of new voters potentially producing the most diverse electorate in American history. But paradoxically, that surge may not dislodge the central role of the predominantly white […] Read more »
California’s Democratic Presidential Primary Race A Wide Open Affair
Likely voters in California’s pivotal March 3, 2020 Democratic primary currently are dividing their preferences across five main presidential contenders. Former Vice President Joe Biden holds a slim four-point advantage at 22%, followed by Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren at 18%, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders (17%),California U.S. Senator Kamala Harris (13%) […] Read more »
Senate 2020: The Primary Challengers
Key Points• The postwar renomination rate for Senate incumbents is 96%. That’s a little bit lower than the rate in the House.• However, no senators have lost renomination in 13 of the last 19 elections. So recent history does not necessarily suggest that there will be even a single Senate […] Read more »