The battle for the White House may be the marquee political event of 2020, but it is the rapidly intensifying struggle for control of the Senate that will determine how power is truly wielded in Washington come 2021. … Strategists for both parties and independent analysts currently give Republicans the […] Read more »
The 2020 electoral map could be the smallest in years. Here’s why.
In a politically divided nation, with attitudes among many voters hardened and resistant to changing, the 2020 general election could be contested on the narrowest electoral terrain in recent memory. Just four states are likely to determine the outcome in 2020. Each flipped to the Republicans in 2016, but President […] Read more »
Iowa’s Most Famous Pollster Faces Her Toughest Test Yet
… J. Ann Selzer, the head of the Des Moines Register’s Iowa Poll, first became the subject of national attention in 2008, when her survey correctly showed that Barack Obama would win the Iowa contest, thanks to unprecedented turnout among first-time voters. … Even as Americans have grown doubtful about […] Read more »
Trump trails Democrats by a historically large margin
A new national Quinnipiac University poll finds that former Vice President Joe Biden, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, California Sen. Kamala Harris and South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg all lead President Donald Trump by significant margins in potential 2020 matchups. … The Quinnipiac poll was the […] Read more »
What polls really tell us about the state of the presidential race
With Labor Day almost here, the traditional start of the campaign season, a raft of new polls has arrived, giving insights into which candidates have the lead but also why and what Americans think about the issues the country faces. It’s commonplace for people to say they don’t trust polls […] Read more »
The 2020 Democratic Candidates and Their Coalitions
Two topics have dominated the political dialogue this week: Bedbugs (who has them — or doesn’t — and who reacted poorly to being described as one) and one poll (Monmouth), which showed Biden’s lead in the race for Democratic nomination slipping. Needless to say, I’m not particularly interested in diving […] Read more »