I suspect we will see a spate of new polls fielding after Labor Day. I am hoping they ask some questions beyond the horse race that tell us more about what voters are thinking around the Democratic presidential contest. Here are some suggestions (in no particular order): CONT. Diane Feldman Read more »
Trump Isn’t In Danger Of Losing The Primary, But All These Challengers Could Still Have An Impact.
… According to a CNN analysis from December, the only president in the last 70 years who was more beloved among members of his own party (as measured before the New Hampshire primary) was Dwight Eisenhower in 1956. And this is important because the only presidents who faced muscular primary […] Read more »
DNC to recommend scrapping Iowa, Nevada virtual caucus plans
The Democratic National Committee will recommend scrapping state plans to offer virtual, telephone-based caucuses in 2020 due to security concerns, sources tell The Associated Press. The final choice whether to allow virtual caucuses in Iowa and Nevada is up to the party’s powerful Rules and Bylaws Committee. But opposition from […] Read more »
Two Polling Methods, Two Views of Trump’s 2020 Re-election Chances
There are two major theories about President Trump’s standing heading into his re-election campaign. Over the last few months, they have found backing from two very different kinds of polls. One theory holds that Mr. Trump is fundamentally like any other president. This would be good news for his chances […] Read more »
Why outlier polls are a good thing
Earlier this week, the Democratic race for president was seemingly rocked by a Monmouth University poll showing former Vice President Joe Biden falling from 32% to 19%. The poll, which had Biden in a virtual tie with Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, was an outlier compared […] Read more »
Notes on the State of Politics
Key Points • The Democratic primary race has been very stable, with the biggest exception being Elizabeth Warren’s rise to become one of the clear frontrunners. • Donald Trump is attracting primary challengers, but his standing within the GOP remains strong. • Sen. Johnny Isakson’s (R-GA) pending resignation expands the […] Read more »