In 2018, Democratic candidates waded into hostile territory and flipped 40 House districts, many of them moderate or conservative in their makeup. In almost every instance, their formula centered on narrowing their target profile by avoiding controversial positions, and focusing obsessively on Republican weaknesses, primarily Donald Trump’s abuses of power […] Read more »
Whom Democrats like second-best depends on whom they like most
Nearly all of the candidates seeking the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination next year have one very specific thing in common: They are not going to win. That means that some large percentage of Democratic voters will, at some point, see their preferred candidates drop out and then have to decide […] Read more »
Message Morphs and the Fifth Debate
The Iowa Democratic Party Liberty and Justice (LJ) dinner is a marker in the nomination process as candidates have the opportunity to show off their organizations and message positioning. New polling suggests shifting allegiances. With just 90 days before the caucuses, the shape of the race matters more now than […] Read more »
A year out, here’s four scenarios for 2020 elections
After Donald Trump’s surprise victory in 2016, there’s a saturating fear of projecting elections. Nearly three years into his presidency, and with one year left in his first term, there are multiple potential outcomes for the 2020 elections. But the scenarios aren’t created equal and don’t have the same chance […] Read more »
The complex considerations undergirding 2020 polling
About two weeks before Election Day 2016, the New York Times tweeted its most recent forecast for the outcome of the presidential election. Hillary Clinton had a 93 percent chance of winning, the forecast suggested, leaving Donald Trump a less than 1-in-10 chance of success. … That election was certainly […] Read more »
One Year From Election, Trump Trails Biden but Leads Warren in Battlegrounds
Despite low national approval ratings and the specter of impeachment, President Trump remains highly competitive in the battleground states likeliest to decide his re-election, according to a set of new surveys from The New York Times Upshot and Siena College. Across the six closest states that went Republican in 2016, […] Read more »