The 2020 presidential election cycle will be one of the most consequential in U.S. history. Although electoral outcomes often turn on candidate evaluations or social and cultural choices unrelated to public policy, voters in the upcoming year will likely confront a choice between two competing visions of domestic policy that […] Read more »
Choose Your Own Early State Adventure
This week, we play out a few scenarios of how the Democratic primary might unfold in the early states. Then we discuss what the departures of Harris and Bullock could mean for the 2020 race and the party. Finally, we break down a poll that looks at how President Trump […] Read more »
The Democratic Race: Biden 2020 as Romney 2012
Key Points • Biden’s endurance at the top of the Democratic race is reminiscent of Mitt Romney’s endurance in the 2012 Republican race. • Despite considerable liabilities, Romney benefited — and Biden benefits — from splintered opposition and being the best fit for a significant bloc of party regulars. • […] Read more »
Why Kamala Harris’s failure echoes Marco Rubio’s
A year ago, almost nobody would have guessed that Sen. Kamala D. Harris (D-Calif.) would drop out of the Democratic presidential race before the Iowa caucus. Like Marco Rubio and Scott Walker in 2016, Harris had the potential to be a consensus candidate: someone who could satisfy the demands of […] Read more »
Why Harris Dropped Out
After an initially promising bid, California Sen. Kamala Harris dropped out of the Democratic presidential primary race Tuesday. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew assesses why she stumbled in the polls and dropped out relatively early. FiveThirtyEight Read more »
Why Kamala Harris’s Campaign Failed
… Kamala Harris dropped out of the presidential race on Tuesday, and she’s probably the most significant candidate to do so to date. … Harris dropping out now surprised me. I expected she would stay in the race at least through Iowa and perhaps even New Hampshire, and drop out […] Read more »