A big part of Donald J. Trump’s political identity has centered on his promises to shake up the United States’ role in the world and reject the free-trade agreements that he has called “a disaster” for American workers. … When Mr. Trump took office, polls showed that Americans were broadly […] Read more »
Lessons Learned? What the 2016 election polls may (and may not) tell us about 2020
On this week’s episode of Poll Hub, it’s almost 2020. So, why are some people still focusing on 2016 pre-election polls? We pick up that question. And, lawmakers are seeking to curb those irritating robocalls. But, could survey research be impacted? We explain. Marist Poll Read more »
Don’t Bet Against Bloomberg
The more I think about Michael Bloomberg’s campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination, the more I wonder whether the political cognoscenti are underestimating his chances of winning. … While there are legitimate arguments to be made against Bloomberg, there are equally persuasive arguments against each of his rivals. If polling […] Read more »
Will Impeachment Affect the Democratic Presidential Race?
When the impeachment of Donald Trump became a likely event in September, it became fashionable to speculate how Trump’s re-election fortunes might be affected: would the process hurt Trump by generating damaging disclosures and negative publicity, or would he benefit from a popular backlash and highly-mobilized Republican base? I suggested […] Read more »
California: Sanders and Warren Now Share Primary Lead, Preferences Unusually Fluid
Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, at 24%, and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, at 22%, are now the frontrunners in California’s March Democratic presidential primary. The latest Berkeley IGS Poll finds former Vice President Joe Biden dropping to third place, with 14% support, followed by South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg at […] Read more »
Impeachment’s Limited Political Impact on 2020
We live in a political era of incredible volatility and mind-numbing predictability. For only the third time in American history, a president is about to be impeached. Even so, Americans aren’t particularly captivated by a story in which they already know the ending. … As such, the fact that Trump […] Read more »