It’s long past time we toss the “lane theory” of primaries into the dustbin of history. Lane theory holds that candidates are essentially running to attract subsets of voters who have consistently different sets of priorities, ideological or otherwise. Until near the end of the race, claims the theory, candidates […] Read more »
Why do so many people believe Trump will win?
… Clinton won the popular vote by just under 3 million votes, a far more substantial popular vote victory than Gore had, yet she lost more crucial states than Gore did. Lesson learned. The focus this cycle is much more on the Electoral College and the key states that add […] Read more »
California voters wanted Kamala Harris to drop out of presidential race, poll found
Sen. Kamala Harris’ decision to drop out of the 2020 presidential race came as a new poll showed a majority of California Democrats wanted Harris to exit the race. The poll, conducted by the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies for The Times, showed that by 61% to 24%, likely Democratic […] Read more »
The key demographics of the Democratic Party are fragmenting
The continuing uncertainty in the Democratic presidential primary has a hole the size of Barack Obama at its center. One reason the race remains so unsettled is that none of the contenders has reassembled the winning coalition of groups that Obama coalesced during his 2008 run to the nomination, a […] Read more »
Is The Party Deciding?
With Thanksgiving behind us, it’s time to dive back into the two big political stories of the fall: the House impeachment inquiry and the race for the Democratic presidential nomination. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the team gives an update on where public opinion stands on impeachment […] Read more »
The surprising second choices of Democratic primary voters upend political cliches
To many observers, the Democratic presidential primary has highlighted the “profound ideological divides between the Democratic Party’s moderate and progressive wings,” as an Associated Press article put it — two wings locked in a bitter fight for control. … Perhaps that’s how Democratic leaders and activists see the primary. But […] Read more »