On its face, President Trump should have a pretty solid chance of reelection. He is an incumbent, and incumbents have a real advantage in presidential elections. Moreover, many economic indicators are positive. Last month, for example, the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment showed that Americans were more positive […] Read more »
How Our Primary Model Works
Here at FiveThirtyEight, we’ve never built a complete back-to-front model of the presidential primaries before. Instead, in 2008, 2012 and 2016, we issued forecasts of individual primaries and caucuses on piecemeal basis, using polls and demographics. We always thought there were too many complexities involved — how the outcome in […] Read more »
How Serious Is Tom Steyer’s Polling Surge?
… In what might be the most surprising results of the cycle, Fox News released polls in South Carolina and Nevada showing Tom Steyer in a strong position: second place with 15 percent of the vote in the South Carolina primary, and tied for third with 12 percent of the […] Read more »
Fox News Poll: Races tighten between Trump and Democrats in Wisconsin
The Democratic advantage over Donald Trump has narrowed in potential head-to-head matchups, according to a Fox News Poll of Wisconsin voters. In addition, a plurality opposes the Senate removing President Trump from office following impeachment by the House, even as a majority disapproves of the job he is doing as […] Read more »
Fox News Poll: Biden ahead by 21 points among South Carolina Democrats
Joe Biden continues to hold a large lead in the race for the Democratic nomination in South Carolina, as newcomer Tom Steyer jumps into second. That’s according to a Fox News Poll of likely Democratic primary voters in the Palmetto State, which is the fourth state to vote in the […] Read more »
Fox News Poll: Biden and Sanders vie for lead in Nevada, Biden tops Trump
Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders remain the top picks for the Democratic nomination among Nevada caucusgoers, while Elizabeth Warren fades and Tom Steyer gains momentum. In the general election contest, the latest Fox News Poll of Nevada voters shows Democrats besting President Trump — but only Biden has a lead […] Read more »