For a party that counts on women, people of color and young folks for votes, it is a bit ironic that the leading candidates in the national polls are two old white guys. … The durability of these two candidates is a testament to some important political truths. First, even […] Read more »
Foreign Policy Doesn’t Usually Affect Elections. Could Iran Be Different?
The American-ordered drone strike that killed one of Iran’s most powerful military leaders, Qassem Soleimani, has triggered retaliation from Iran and put American troops in the Middle East on heightened alert. It has also brought foreign policy to the top of the news cycle. How events unfold from here is […] Read more »
The Electoral College: Maine and Nebraska’s Crucial Battleground Votes
Key Points • Nationalization has pushed urban and rural areas apart; Maine and Nebraska are no exceptions to this trend, and their unique electoral vote allocation systems are highlighting that division. • The Omaha-based NE-2 supported Republicans in the past two presidential elections, but by decreasing margins, and could feasibly […] Read more »
Republican Edge in Electoral College Tie Endures
The possibility that the Electoral College could split 269-269 is remote, but possible. … We looked at the GOP edge in the event of a tie about a year ago, and we thought we’d update our outlook at the dawn of the election year. There have been some subtle changes, […] Read more »
Is killing Soleimani a game changer for Democrats?
… Hard as it may be to believe in the white heat of the moment, when D.C. is consumed with the story, history suggests the greatest likelihood is that it won’t have any discernable impact. Political scientists Lynn Vavreck and John Sides identified 68 events labeled “game changers” in 2012, […] Read more »
Trump Wants Law and Order Front and Center
Unexpectedly, the 2020 presidential campaign is drilling down on petty crime and homelessness. Donald Trump and his Republican allies are reviving law-and-order themes similar to those used effectively by Richard Nixon and Spiro Agnew in the late 1960s and early 1970s to demonize racial minorities. To this end, Republicans seek […] Read more »