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It’s Wide Open Going into Iowa

… The Democratic race has been frozen in place by the holidays, without many meaningful developments since the Dec. 19 debate. But don’t let the recent lack of movement fool you; this is the most wide-open contest for the Democratic presidential nomination in modern history. CONT. Charlie Cook Read more »

Poll Hub: The Polling Push

On this week’s episode of our podcast, Poll Hub, Nate Cohn, domestic correspondent for The Upshot at The New York Times, joins the team. Few polls have been released since the last Democratic primary debate, and supporters of the lower-tier candidates are in an uproar. We discuss why this poll […] Read more »

And Then There Were Five…

In our first episode of 2020, we preview the seventh Democratic primary debate. Plus, we discuss the role endorsements and fundraising play in predicting the ultimate primary winner, and how the developing situation in Iran might influence the 2020 race. The Forecast Fest Read more »

Biden Is The Front-Runner, But There’s No Clear Favorite

Joe Biden is the most likely person to win a majority of pledged Democratic delegates, according to the FiveThirtyEight primary model, which we launched on Thursday morning. … But saying the former vice president is the front-runner doesn’t really tell the whole story. He may be the most likely nominee, […] Read more »

Presidential Candidates and Competency

President Donald Trump and his campaign strategists are clearly focusing his reelection campaign largely on the premise that Trump is a highly competent leader who has kept his promises and completed a long list of accomplishments. Much of Trump’s reelection website is given over to “Promises Kept,” with detailed descriptions […] Read more »