Welcome to your first FiveThirtyEight Election Update of the 2020 primary cycle! This is a column in which we’ll talk about the primary race through the lens of our forecast model, which we released earlier this week. … We don’t necessarily plan to publish an Election Update as a result […] Read more »
Identity politics won’t win this presidential election
… Identity doesn’t solely define American politics. Voters aren’t vassals who blindly support candidates who look or act (or eat or pray) like them. And frankly, it’s insulting to presume that a certain slice of a demographic will support a candidate simply because they share a candidate’s characteristic or trait. […] Read more »
Latino Voters Will Decide the 2020 Election
… As was the case in 2016, if Democrats want to have any chance of defeating Mr. Trump, they will need the strong support of Latino voters. This time, however, they will have to work extra hard to get it. … The number of eligible voters of Hispanic background who […] Read more »
Iran, Impeachment, and Iowa
Between the events unfolding in Iran and the Iowa causes, there’s a lot to digest this week. Astead Herndon of The New York Times and Clare Malone of FiveThirtyEight join Politics with Amy Walter to provide an update on the state of the Democratic Primary. Plus, Thanassis Cambanis of the […] Read more »
Iowa poll shows a tight four-way race in final weeks before the Democratic caucuses
Iowa’s likely caucusgoers are closely divided between four top candidates just weeks out from the Democratic caucuses, a new CNN/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll shows. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is on the rise as other top competitors hold steady or lose ground. Sanders (20%), Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren (17%), former South […] Read more »
The Iowa Poll Everyone Is Waiting For
Campaign officials for the leading Democratic presidential candidates on Friday were eagerly awaiting the release of the first significant poll from Iowa in nearly two months, a drought that has left a murky picture of the Democratic primary race in a state that conducts its first-in-the-nation caucuses in less than […] Read more »