President Trump endured plenty of ups and down during his first three years in office. Just not when it came to polling. The gap between his highest and lowest job-approval ratings is the narrowest of any first-term president in the history of modern polling (since 1945). The levels of extreme […] Read more »
Biden’s edge evaporates as Trump seen as better suited for economy, coronavirus response
Joe Biden’s advantage over President Donald Trump in popular support has eroded in recent weeks as the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee struggles for visibility with voters during the coronavirus pandemic, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Tuesday. CONT. Chris Kahn, Reuters The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of […] Read more »
History says whoever can best handle coronavirus will win the election. That should worry Trump.
The 2020 election is shaping up to be the rare one that isn’t almost exclusively about the economy. More Americans, 45%, say Covid-19 is the most important problem facing the country than they have about any non-economic issue at any point since 2001, except for terrorism in October 2001. We’ve […] Read more »
Why Trump’s shadow over the race for Senate control is so long
… Senate elections are becoming more about the party and less about the individual candidates. It’s become harder and harder for even the most talented Senate candidates to win, in effect, behind enemy lines, in states that usually vote the other way in presidential races. … The hardening alignment between […] Read more »
Justin Amash Could Cause Some Trouble In November
The 2020 presidential election just got its first notable third-party challenger. Last Tuesday, Michigan Rep. Justin Amash, who left the Republican Party nine months ago and became an independent, announced he would run for president as a Libertarian. And while we won’t know whether Amash wins his new party’s nomination […] Read more »
Biden Responds To Sexual Assault Allegation
On Friday, former Vice President Joe Biden personally denied a sexual assault allegation by his former Senate staffer Tara Reade. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the team reviews how elected Democrats and voters are reacting to the accusation so far, and what it means for Biden politically. […] Read more »