… In any single poll, it is difficult for pollsters to reach a significant number of voters who supported third-party candidates in 2016, making it impossible to trace their preferences now. And Mr. Trump — who faced vocal opposition that year from some prominent Republicans and won anyway — remains […] Read more »
How Trump Could Improve His Electoral Odds
In this week’s FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the team considers various strategies that President Trump and Republicans could use to improve their electoral prospects this fall — ranging from a new running mate to a vacancy on the U.S. Supreme Court. FiveThirtyEight Read more »
A simple forecast suggests a Democratic sweep in 2020
The covid-19-driven economic collapse, upheaval over racial politics in the United States and President Trump’s consistently low popularity ratings have given Democrats an opening to win the presidency and both houses of Congress in 2020. Our prediction, based on economic indicators and presidential approval ratings, provides a simple, albeit early, […] Read more »
Trump could sink the House GOP in suburbia
President Donald Trump’s continuing erosion among well-educated voters looms as perhaps the most imposing headwind to Republican hopes of recapturing the House of Representatives in November — or even avoiding further losses in the chamber. … In recent weeks, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and other party groups have publicly […] Read more »
Were Democratic Voters Right About Biden’s Electability?
The idea that there is often a difference between the candidate you love the most and the candidate who has the best chance to win is a long-standing fixture of nomination politics, especially in the Democratic Party. But the assumption that “electability” is a quality shared by some potential nominees […] Read more »
Trump’s misreading the map, looking for Electoral College votes in some of the wrong places
If November’s election were held this week, polling averages suggest Joe Biden would sweep President Donald Trump in all six states Trump carried by less than five points in 2016: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Biden is also running highly competitively in the four states Trump carried […] Read more »