The death of George Floyd and subsequent protests reshaped the presidential race. It brought race relations, racism and police brutality to the forefront. In that time, former Vice President Joe Biden’s advantage over President Donald Trump expanded from about six points to closer to 10 points. Interestingly, however, Trump continues […] Read more »
Why Trump can’t make the election about Biden
Reality counts. That may be the biggest message of the 2020 presidential campaign so far. While President Donald Trump shuffles his campaign staff and more Republicans grumble that he has failed to formulate a clear message and stick to it, a wide array of public and private polls signal that […] Read more »
CNN Poll of Polls: Biden maintains double-digit lead over Trump nationally, with coronavirus a top issue
Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by a significant 12-point margin nationally, according to a CNN Poll of Polls released Monday. Biden garners 52% support among registered voters, with 40% supporting Trump. The poll of polls includes the five most recent national telephone polls measuring the views […] Read more »
There Aren’t Secret Trump Voters
A recent Monmouth poll showed that a majority of Pennsylvanians — 57 percent — believe there are “secret voters” in their communities who support Trump but won’t tell anyone about it. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew explains why that is unlikely. They also consider the […] Read more »
A closer look at vote by mail and the voting process
About elections, it is often said that “it all comes down to turnout,” and this year, that may be the case even more so. With the coronavirus pandemic there may be challenges to voting in person and many states are considering making mail voting more available. In the battleground states […] Read more »
Big Polling Leads Tend to Erode. Is Biden’s Edge Different?
Joe Biden’s commanding advantage in the race for the White House shows no sign of abating. … After a quarter-century of closely fought elections, it is easy to assume that wide leads are unsustainable in today’s deeply polarized country. Only Barack Obama in 2008 managed to win the national vote […] Read more »