There is good news for former Vice President Joe Biden when it comes to younger voters. He’s no longer underperforming where Hillary Clinton ended up in the final 2016 polls. The big question coming out of the Democratic National Convention is whether they’ll actually start to like him. Going in, […] Read more »
How Biden could still lose
After three hard years of fuming over President Trump, it has been a reassuring summer for Democrats. The Biden campaign had a strong convention, capped by a best-of-career speech by Joe Biden. Party fundraising is surging, and the polls look excellent. But a good campaign is a paranoid campaign, especially […] Read more »
The Democratic Convention’s Big Blind Spot
… Biden projected passion, energy, and solidity in remarks that more closely resembled a grave presidential address from the Oval Office than the typical raucous convention speech. In his manner as much as his words, Biden offered a contrast to Trump’s belligerent volatility—and to the GOP’s portrayal of him as […] Read more »
Can Biden Undercut Trump’s Continued Advantage on the Economy?
The most recent national polls have been pretty bleak for President Trump. All show him trailing Biden anywhere from four to 12 points. A majority of voters disapprove of the way he’s handling the coronavirus pandemic. And, less than one-third of the public think the economy is in good shape. […] Read more »
A historical look at post-convention bounces
On this week’s episode of Poll Hub, our team takes a historical look at post-convention poll bounces. Recent history hasn’t shown much movement for presidential candidates. Could this year be different? Then, the United States Postal Service and mail-in voting have taken center stage this election season. We discuss the […] Read more »
Beware the Outlier Poll
… As an election nears, many partisans start heading for the nearest window ledge every time they see a poll bearing unwelcome news. Sometimes they have good reason to be concerned, but often the poll is an outlier, one not particularly representative of other polling conducted contemporaneously. There is an […] Read more »