Trump is leading Republicans to an unwanted record in the popular vote

American elections tend to swing on a pendulum. No one party usually holds power for too long. Since 1952, for example, only once has a party won the presidency three elections in a row. Yet, partially through a little bit of bad luck and two electoral college-popular vote splits, the […] Read more »

The election forecast wars are here. Here’s how to navigate them.

… Mathematical election predictions can seem both tantalizing and frustratingly opaque. People want to know what will happen, especially in an election as consequential as this one, but they often don’t understand how the people who build these predictive tools reach their conclusions. They may be dazzled by the presentation […] Read more »