Even before the COVID-19 outbreak and the economic slump, President Donald Trump faced a big challenge in his 2020 re-election effort: a changing American electorate. Young voters have been a challenge for Trump since he entered politics (he lost voters under 40 by double digits in 2016) and every year […] Read more »
Trump’s Strategy: Make ‘Wobbly Republicans’ Think Their Party Is Great Again
President Trump and his party are entering the nine-week stretch until Election Day with their success riding on a hope that enough voters come to the following conclusion: You’re not as bad as we thought. As part of this strategy, Republicans and the Trump campaign are attempting to focus voters’ […] Read more »
Trump is the president of the loud minority, not silent majority
I’ve spent a lot of time talking about the importance of the 50% mark for former Vice President Joe Biden. Biden, unlike Hillary Clinton four years ago, is consistently hitting and exceeding 50% in the polls, which means President Donald Trump can’t just count on late deciders to put him […] Read more »
A slip in support for Black Lives Matter?
… In his speech closing out the convention’s final session Thursday night, Trump warned about “mob rule,” building upon a speech he made last week in which he pitched himself as the “only thing standing between the American Dream and total anarchy, madness and chaos.” Despite all of it occurring […] Read more »
Why Democrats are worried about Kenosha
Former Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump both recognize the potential political fallouts if protests in the wake of the Jacob Blake shooting are seen as peaceful or as violent. Biden benefits if they are seen as the former, while Trump is helped if they are seen as […] Read more »
Conventions Can Boost the Incumbent. Did It Work This Time?
The last two presidential re-election campaigns followed a similar playbook: define the opposition early on the most important issue, emphasize a few cultural wedge issues to rally the base while appealing to a few swing voters, and reinvigorate supporters at the convention. It was enough for George W. Bush in […] Read more »