There’s been media speculation over the past week that unrest in places like Kenosha, Wisconsin, and Portland, Oregon, could reshape the presidential race and hurt Democratic nominee Joe Biden. The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast crew discusses why there is not yet evidence to back up these assertions. They also preview Tuesday’s […] Read more »
The dramatic impact the riots are having on 2020
… After George Floyd’s murder on May 25th, there was righteous anger across the political spectrum and not very many answers. The Left attributed the problem to systemic racism and many in both the middle and the Right agreed the problem must be addressed. … Witness the CNN poll (June […] Read more »
Trump’s popularity slips in latest Military Times poll — and more troops say they’ll vote for Biden
The latest Military Times poll shows a continued decline in active-duty service members’ views of President Donald Trump and a slight but significant preference for former Vice President Joe Biden in the upcoming November election among troops surveyed. … Between July 27 and Aug. 10, Military Times in collaboration with […] Read more »
It’s Biden’s to lose (and he still could): State of the race after the conventions
The election is Joe Biden’s to lose as he continues to hold a lead over President Donald Trump coming out of the Democratic and Republican conventions, which mark the start of the fall campaign. But the future is unknowable. Data has its limits. Surprises happen. The world can change quickly, […] Read more »
Trump’s still in trouble in first post-convention polling
President Donald Trump wanted a large bounce coming out of the Republican National Convention, and early evidence is that he did not receive one. Trump may have gotten a small bump out of his convention, but he still clearly trails former Vice President Joe Biden. If later polling data confirms […] Read more »
Trump’s favorability and perceptions of COVID-19 response stagnate post-convention
President Donald Trump’s efforts to build his appeal and define his opponent at the Republican National Convention, using pageantry and the White House as the backdrop, had little apparent impact on the electorate’s impressions of both him and former Vice President Joe Biden, a new ABC News/Ipsos poll finds. Trump’s […] Read more »