For weeks, the mantra of the data nerd has been that President Trump can still win reelection. The Democratic nightmare scenario — Trump loses the popular vote but again wins the electoral college — is very much still on the table. But the same statistical models that show a path […] Read more »
The 2016 and 2020 races: What’s different?
… Modelers at FiveThirtyEight give Biden a 71 percent chance of winning, while The Economist’s statisticians set the chances at 84 percent. But not so fast. One could travel back to September 2016, substitute Hillary Clinton for Biden and The New York Times for The Economist, and written the same […] Read more »
Biden leads by 9 in Pennsylvania
Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by a 9-point margin among likely voters in Pennsylvania, a key swing state where Biden was born, according to a new NBC News/Marist poll. … Trump gets upside-down job approval from the Keystone State, although he still maintains an advantage on […] Read more »
Trump’s small convention bump could salvage GOP Senate hopes
With less than two months to go until the election—and with the critical battleground of North Carolina already sending out mail-in ballots—it’s worth taking stock of where things stand. Based on the slew of post-convention polls and conversations with Republican and Democratic strategists, there’s a consensus that the president received […] Read more »
Trump doubles down on crime message as polls suggest it’s a risky gamble
The crime-heavy focus during the Republican National Convention appears to have fallen flat with voters, a new wave of surveys has suggested, even as President Donald Trump appears increasingly reliant on the issue as a core element of his re-election strategy. … But even though worries about crime have ticked […] Read more »
The 8 states where 2020 will be won or lost
Minnesota’s Iron Range. Wisconsin’s “WOW” counties. Suburban Charlotte. The city of Philadelphia. Each is a shorthand for the building blocks of victory in the swing states that will determine the presidential election. At the traditional, post-Labor Day start of the fall campaign, POLITICO is zeroing in on eight critical battlegrounds […] Read more »