… A new Marist College poll finds that Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson holds a 48% to 45% advantage over Republican Rick Scott. Two other gold standard polls out this week from the University of North Florida and Quinnipiac University give Nelson an average 3.5 point lead. … A Scott win […] Read more »
More U.S. Voters Plan to Send Message About Trump This Fall
A majority of U.S. registered voters, 56%, say they plan to use their vote in this year’s midterm elections to send a message about President Donald Trump. That includes 25% who say their vote will be a sign of support for the president and 31% whose vote will express their […] Read more »
What We’ve Learned About Undecided Voters Heading Into the Midterms
We don’t tend to talk much about undecided voters in political analysis. Sometimes, you can gloss over them altogether by referring to a candidate’s polling lead, such as “Dems plus-5.” But undecided voters can decide elections; in 2016 they played a key role in swinging toward Mr. Trump in the […] Read more »
Both Parties’ Voters Are Keyed Up for Midterm Elections
Americans’ enthusiasm for voting in November is significantly higher than it was in the prior six midterm election years. Fifty-five percent of U.S. adults say they are “more enthusiastic” about voting than usual, which contrasts with between 37% and 50% saying the same in Gallup’s final pre-election surveys each midterm […] Read more »
The Senate: How 2018 Sets Up 2020
The 2018 Senate races are important not just for determining the majority next January, but also for setting up both parties for the next election. … If Republicans can net a seat or two this year, it would make their position much stronger in 2020, much like their strong showing […] Read more »
The 2018 Impact on the 2020 Democratic Nomination
Talk of Democrats winning the House (and maybe even the Senate), turns quickly to the question of what a divided Congress would mean for legislating and the odds that Democrats will call for President Trump’s impeachment. … After watching him for the last year and a half, this unpredictable and […] Read more »