After Brett M. Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the Supreme Court, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) called opponents of his nomination “the mob” and sardonically thanked them for energizing Republicans ahead of the midterm elections. “It’s been a great political gift for us,” McConnell said. A new survey bears out some […] Read more »
Polarization Seems to Be Helping Republicans in Run-Up to Midterms
One big question looms over the fight for control of Congress: Will strong Democratic candidates ride a blue wave to victories on Nov. 6 in the long list of Republican-leaning areas they’ve put into play? Or will partisan polarization carry Republicans to a closer than expected midterm result? The fight […] Read more »
An Upset That Nobody Sees Coming Could Determine Control Of The House
… Individual House races are fairly hard to predict. They don’t get all that much polling. Sometimes the candidates make a big difference, and sometimes they don’t. There will be lots of idiosyncratic and even “surprising” demographic patterns that emerge on Nov. 6, but the whole reason they’ll be surprises […] Read more »
Young Voters Might Actually Show Up At The Polls This Year
The question on many Democrats’ minds is: Will young people turn out to vote in 2018? Recent survey data has liberals worried. … To get a sense of the rate at which younger voters have historically turned out in midterm elections, I looked at data from the Current Population Survey […] Read more »
Uncertainty over a blue wave: NBC News finds Democratic and GOP voter registrations at same level as past election cycles
Less than a month from Election Day, both parties have been focused on registering as many voters as possible and competing to see which holds the advantage in turning out their base. The turnout battle is the most important fight in winning control of Congress. … While determining turnout prior […] Read more »
Beware of Preelection Polling Spin
At this late phase of the electoral season, there is a blur of polling data from different directions and of variable quality. You can pretty much cherry-pick data to support almost any prophecy you want. CONT. Ed Kilgore, New York Magazine Read more »