We’re watching Tuesday’s special election in Arizona closely, not because we expect the Democrats to stage an upset (the congressional district is solidly Republican), but because Republicans are showing concern over the outcome. Here’s what makes this House race interesting. CONT. Jonathan Martin & Denise Lu, New York Times Read more »
Politics Podcast: Should Ted Cruz Actually Be Worried?
The first major public poll of the U.S. Senate race in Texas showed Republican incumbent Ted Cruz leading Democratic congressman Beto O’Rourke by only 3 points. This week, the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast team debates whether there’s reason to believe that the race is actually that close. Fittingly, the crew also […] Read more »
Non-voters’ dislike of Donald Trump isn’t likely to make them vote in 2018
Millions of Americans stay home every election, and the 2018 midterms are unlikely to be much different despite broad disapproval of President Trump and discontent with the direction of the country, according to a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll. CONT. Marilyn Icsman, USA Today Read more »
‘I Was Trump Before Trump Was Trump’
Don Blankenship likes to believe he knows something about rough justice and who deserves it. “We don’t need to investigate our president. We need to arrest Hillary,” one of his campaign ads proclaims, mimicking President Trump’s crude 2016 rallying cry, “Lock her up!” … In Republican races across the country, […] Read more »
Risk Factors for 2018 GOP House Incumbents
Multiple indicators, including generic ballot polls , President Trump’s approval ratings and recent special election results, point to midterm danger for Republicans. But without robust race-by-race polling, it’s trickier to predict individual races six months out. Are Democrats the favorites to pick up the 23 seats they need for a […] Read more »
The Democrats’ lead in House polling is tightening. Here’s what it means
Everything seems to be going the Democrats’ way on their march for House control in November. Republicans, including House Speaker Paul Ryan, are retiring left and right. Democrats continue to overperform in special elections. Nonpartisan handicappers, including CNN, continue to move more races in the Democrats’ direction. And yet, the […] Read more »