With the chances of Democrats capturing control of the House edging from a possibility to a probability, and a Democratic majority in the Senate now quite plausible—though still under 50-50—it’s a good time for Democrats to reflect on which version of their party might become part of the governing process. […] Read more »
GOP Primaries Focus On Candidates’ Loyalty To President Trump
… Despite low national approval ratings, a steady stream of administration controversies and the ongoing investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election led by Justice Department special counsel Robert Mueller, nothing has shaken President Trump’s enduring popularity among Republicans, where his approval ratings hover around 90 percent. Veteran House […] Read more »
They Voted for Obama, Then Went for Trump. Can Democrats Win Them Back?
… The swing of Obama voters to Mr. Trump proved a decisive factor in the 2016 presidential election. Of the more than 650 counties that chose Mr. Obama twice, about a third flipped to Mr. Trump. Many were in states critical to Mr. Trump’s win, like Iowa, Michigan, Ohio and […] Read more »
Have Special Elections Warped Our Sense of the Midterms?
The Republican Debbie Lesko’s shockingly close margin of victory in a recent special election in Arizona’s Eighth Congressional District — she won by five percentage points where Donald Trump won by over 20 — again raises the prospect of a blue wave in the midterms. It is true that Republicans […] Read more »
Don’t trust the polls? You should. They’ve been fairly accurate so far this election cycle.
It might be hip to say that the “polls are broken” or the “polls are wrong,” but so far this cycle, it has not been true. There have been nine congressional (House and Senate) and governor elections with polling in 2017 and 2018, and the polling from them has been […] Read more »
New message platform for 2018’s key battlegrounds: Report from phone survey & web-panel in the 12-state battleground
Democrats sit at the edge of a landslide repudiation of President Trump and Republicans – in the Congress and states where they govern – in November. This is according to the first of three waves of a phone survey (conducted mostly on cell-phones) of registered voters and a coordinated on-going […] Read more »