For all the talk of a “blue wave” that could remake Congress in 2018, there is another trend emerging in this year’s early primary results, a wave of women candidates, and in the long run, it could have the bigger impact on Washington. CONT. Dante Chinni, NBC News Read more »
Analysts call it the ‘gender bonus.’ House primary voters call it the change they’re looking for.
… Again and again, if given the choice between the two sexes, Democrats are siding with female candidates for office following the election of President Trump in 2016 and the #MeToo movement, driven by sexual harassment allegations in Congress, Hollywood and other industries. … Democratic strategists offer several explanations for […] Read more »
Why November’s Downballot Races Matter
As Rhodes Cook, the longtime political analyst, recently wrote in his newsletter, “The breadth of Republican dominance these days is not just impressive, it’s staggering. They control the White House, both chambers of Congress, a vast majority of governorships and an overwhelming share of state legislative chambers. In short, by […] Read more »
The Drive to Elect Women Is Defining 2018’s Democratic Primaries
Most analysis has framed this year’s multitude of Democratic primaries as struggles for the soul of the party between moderate, “handpicked DC” candidates and left-wing “insurgents” in the Bernie Sanders mold. On May 15, former Democratic Rep. Brad Ashford (NE-02) was upset by pro-single-payer non-profit executive Kara Eastman. This week, […] Read more »
Recent special elections suggest Democrats may not ride a wave in November
Democrats have taken a tumble on the generic congressional ballot over the last few months. Their advantage in an average of the last five live interview polls is just under 7 percentage points, and it’s even lower when you consider other polls. The Democrats, though, have been taking solace in […] Read more »
Introducing our prediction model for America’s mid-term elections
ON NOVEMBER 6th 2018 the United States will hold elections for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, the lower chamber of Congress. These are contested every two years, both alongside the presidential race and in mid-term elections. … The Economist has developed a statistical model for the House, […] Read more »