More than half of the state elected officials deciding new district lines in 2020 will be elected this year, a new study by the National Conference of State Legislatures found. Three-fifths of governors and one-third of all state senators elected during the 2018 midterms will still be in office during […] Read more »
Poll Hub: A Wave or a Ripple?
With five months to go until the congressional midterm elections, debate exists about whether or not the Democrats will create a blue wave. In this week’s Poll Hub, a look at the perceived schism within the Democratic Party. Are progressive candidates better positioned than moderate candidates to take on Republicans […] Read more »
Has the Blue Wave Already Crested?
Marginal improvement in President Trump’s job approval ratings and a shrinking Democratic advantage on the national generic ballot has spooked a lot of Democrats and cheered up a lot of Republicans. What once looked like a huge tsunami that threatened to demolish the GOP in the House (and maybe in […] Read more »
California: Cutting Through the Fog of Polls
At a time when polling in California is more muddled and uncertain than ever, there’s only one important known unknown in campaigns for statewide office following the two most recent public surveys: Who will come in second in the governor’s race in the prelim June 5 election? CONT. Calbuzz Read more »
Clues From the Upcoming California Primary
House analysts know that handicapping results in individual seats can be tricky for a lot of reasons, including the lack of independent polling in most districts. Yes, the party committees, campaigns, and other outside groups will survey the districts, but many of these polls will never see the light of […] Read more »
For Democrats, 2018 Is the Year of the Woman…and 2020 Too?
… During the rare breaks in the Trump-generated action, media attention has occasionally focused on what has appeared to be a surge in political participation by women, from the well-attended Women’s March of January 2017 to reports of an increase in female campaign donors to studies indicating a rise in […] Read more »