Preemptive finger-pointing is already starting among Democrats as they grow increasingly concerned that Tuesday’s California primary could deal a painful blow to their hopes of recapturing the House of Representatives. But the rising laments may all be missing the root cause of the gathering threat: a long-term failure by California […] Read more »
A Post-Memorial Day Status Report
In a bygone political era, the symbolic end of summer — Labor Day — denoted the unofficial start of the campaign season. In our current era, one might be tempted to say that the symbolic start of summer — Memorial Day — now represents the campaign season kickoff, though American […] Read more »
Why You Should Focus on Independents
I don’t trust anyone who tells me they already know the makeup of the midterm electorate. We can’t possibly know who will vote in the fall, let alone how they will cast their ballots. If I were going to focus on a handful of variables to understand how the cycle […] Read more »
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: Things Are Looking Worse For The Democrats
The Democrats’ advantage in generic ballot polls has declined in recent months, as President Trump’s approval rating has risen. The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast team debates what that means for Democrats’ prospects this fall and how significant a change it is. The crew also tracks the recent developments in possible talks […] Read more »
The Evangelical Fight to Win Back California
Franklin Graham stood in a packed locker room at the Rose Bowl, surrounded by fellow evangelists, pastors, and his top Los Angeles donors. It was two weeks before the California primary, and Mr. Graham was urging them to take a stand against their state’s “blue wall.” The blue wall of California, […] Read more »
2018 primaries see Democratic turnout surge, but GOP shows signs of energy too
In the 13 states that have held primaries so far in 2018, Democrats have seen a surge in turnout that has them confident they’re harnessing discontent generated by President Donald Trump and turning it into political gains. From Georgia to Idaho, from Texas to Pennsylvania, Democrats have consistently voted in […] Read more »