In one way, Maine offered the most interesting results of the night, and not only because of who appears to have won some of the party nominations for governor and Congress. The Pine Tree State became the first state in modern U.S. history to use ranked-choice voting (also known as […] Read more »
Two Ways of Thinking About Election Predictions and What They Tell Us About 2018
To understand the differences between quantitative, data-driven predictions and those made from traditional, data-influenced handicapping, one should direct their attention to the names of two websites: Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, and my blog, The Crosstab. One is a reference to the soothsayer, a […] Read more »
Republicans Absorb New Lesson: Cross President Trump at Their Peril
President Trump wasn’t on the ballot or even stateside for Tuesday’s primary elections in Virginia and South Carolina. But he loomed over both states, just as he has in nearly every nominating contest this year, underscoring how the Republican Party has become the party of Trump and that its politicians […] Read more »
The House Blue Wave Is Alive and Well
For the last couple of months, I’ve heard from many quarters that the “blue wave” has dissipated. Meh. … In fact, there is an abundance of evidence that Democratic House prospects are as good as they have been for months and the House is still very likely to flip. CONT. […] Read more »
Voters Poised for Large Midterm Turnout, Opposed to Drastic Policy Actions by President Trump
Americans are overwhelmingly engaged in the upcoming 2018 congressional elections, and are poised to split with the president on a number of high-profile policy issues. In the inaugural edition of the George Washington University Politics Poll more than three-quarters (78 percent) of registered voters said they definitely will vote in […] Read more »
In Both Parties, Primary Voters Have Trump On Their Minds
… One might expect that the population of wealthy, well-educated, professional, politically-connected Republicans who reside within the Washington suburbs would render northern Virginia about as promising a place as anywhere in the country to find a GOP electorate that was relatively skeptical of Trump and Trumpism. But there’s little trace […] Read more »