Margin of error is simultaneously the most under- and most over-used concept in polling, in part because so many people don’t really understand it. A Democratic gubernatorial primary survey in Maryland provides an opportunity to re-engage with these issues. CONT. Mark Mellman (Mellman Group), The Hill Read more »
Numbers Show House GOP Still in Deep Trouble
The NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released Thursday morning had both good and bad news for President Trump and his party. The good news was that optimism about the direction of the country and the percentage of people believing that the economy is improving are both up from the last […] Read more »
Election interest data shows Democrats have work to do
Our latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll had plenty of numbers to cheer Democrats up, including a 10-point advantage on the generic ballot and a 16-point cushion over GOP voters when it comes to having a high level of interest in the November election. But there may also be a […] Read more »
Obamacare used to be political poison for Democrats. Now they see it as a winning prescription — even in red states
For years Democrats ran from the healthcare issue as though it were a heap of flaming rubble, which, politically speaking, it was. Passage of the Affordable Care Act cost them control of Congress, gave rise to the upstart tea party movement and helped install Donald Trump in the White House. […] Read more »
Democrats’ October ‘surprise’ in the midterms? Hint: It has to do with health care costs
… Insurers in Maryland, New York and Washington have already submitted requests for premium increases averaging 19 percent to 30 percent statewide, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation. It’s an October “surprise” that everyone sees coming, including Democrats trying to take back the House and Senate. … In focus groups […] Read more »
Democrats Don’t Need a Message. They Have Trump.
… Midterm elections are about grievances, often directed against an incumbent president. There are more than four-dozen competitive House races, and Democrats may settle on similar themes. But they don’t need a single agenda. … The anti-Trump message will resonate almost everywhere. In some places, it’ll amount to an all-out […] Read more »