Unprecedented numbers of Americans — including a growing share of Republicans and independents — recognize racial injustice as pervasive, support police reform and back the protests against police brutality. Apparently oblivious to this emerging consensus, Trump is trying to run a Nixon-style “law-and-order” campaign for the 2020 election. And it […] Read more »
Biden Is Polling Better Than Clinton At Her Peak
Election Day is now just three months away, and the overall trajectory of the race hasn’t changed much recently: Joe Biden continues to hold a sizable lead over President Trump. Biden is now up by 8 percentage points in FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average, and he has an advantage of 5 […] Read more »
Poll-Based Election Forecasts Will Always Struggle With Uncertainty
Key Points• We have no idea how much uncertainty exists in pre-election polls. That leads to very complex poll-based forecast models.• The general public lacks the expertise necessary to appropriately interpret win probabilities from those complex models.• Some research shows that overly certain forecasts might depress turnout, which could matter […] Read more »
Democrats Are on Track to Win Decisive Battleground Suburbs They Lost in 2016
Democrats’ path to victory in 2020 requires strong majorities in cities and minimizing losses in rural stretches, but it hinges on performance in the suburbs. … To better understand the dynamics in these decisive places, Third Way used data from the analytics firm Catalist to estimate how many people are […] Read more »
Sorry, Republicans. The polls really are that bad.
Many Republicans are responding with disbelief to polls showing President Trump well behind former vice president Joe Biden nationally and in all the swing states. Some say the polls are undercounting Republicans, while others cite 2016 as evidence that the polls are just wrong. Sadly, neither explanation holds water. … […] Read more »
The polls show Biden is a clear favorite 100 days out from an unprecedented election
Believe it or not, we’re now 100 days and 15 hours from the 2020 election. As we enter the final stretch of the campaign, presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden continues to hold an advantage over President Donald Trump in the polls. A look at history reveals that while Biden’s clearly […] Read more »