… Over the next few months, the difference between national- and state-level polls and the differences between specific states is likely to become more pronounced as voters turn their attention to the campaign and make final decisions about the two major presidential candidates. This week new NBC News/Marist polls of […] Read more »
If nothing matters, Biden likely wins
Some people call Donald Trump’s term in office the “nothing matters” presidency. The phrase is usually applied to Trump by his detractors, who cannot believe his standing with the American public is stable despite what he says and does. They mean it as good news for Trump. Yet the numbers […] Read more »
Biden’s troubles with Black and Latino voters are overstated
After the 2016 election, when Hillary Clinton lost White voters by 15 points, it seemed as if Democrats might need to accept their losses and rely more on minority voters for their next majority. But the opposite has happened. In recent polls, Joe Biden has held President Trump to a […] Read more »
Voters’ Attitudes About Race and Gender Are Even More Divided Than in 2016
During the 2016 presidential campaign, supporters of Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton disagreed over nearly everything, including the extent to which Black adults in this country are disadvantaged because of their race and women because of their gender. Today, these differences are even wider among voters who support Trump and […] Read more »
The 2016 and 2020 races: What’s different?
… Modelers at FiveThirtyEight give Biden a 71 percent chance of winning, while The Economist’s statisticians set the chances at 84 percent. But not so fast. One could travel back to September 2016, substitute Hillary Clinton for Biden and The New York Times for The Economist, and written the same […] Read more »
Democrats Made Gains From Multiple Sources in 2018 Midterm Victories
Compared with Hillary Clinton’s 2-point popular vote advantage over Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election, the Democratic Party expanded its margin over the Republican Party to 9 points in votes cast for the U.S. House of Representatives in 2018, a gain of 7 percentage points. This increased support was […] Read more »