The title of this post says it all. A 2% shift in public opinion is not so large and usually would not be considered shocking. In this case the race was close enough that 2% was consequential. Here’s the background: Four years ago, Mitt Romney received 48% of the two-party […] Read more »
The Shock Heard ‘Round the World
I got it wrong. Really wrong. Trump didn’t just win, he crushed it. This is truly the most shocking thing that I have seen in my lifetime. So, what happened? We are going to be digging through the data for a while. But, at its core the Obama coalition lost […] Read more »
How Donald Trump won the U.S. presidency
Many observers thought this presidential election would be decided by Donald Trump’s polarizing rhetoric, his history of behavior toward women and his questionable qualifications for the office. Instead, CBS News exit polls suggest Trump’s win was in large part a repudiation of Hillary Clinton by a substantial number of white […] Read more »
Why did many polls seem to miss a Trump victory?
Most polls heading into the Nov. 8 presidential election predicted Hillary Clinton would win the presidency. Two weeks before people lined up to vote, famed poll aggregator Nate Silver at the FiveThirtyEight website put her odds of winning at up to 85 percent. When he later gave Trump a 35 […] Read more »
Voter Trends in Battleground States That Helped Trump Win
Donald Trump’s stunning victory last night, despite the majority of pollsters predicting a Clinton win, has many voters wondering how he pulled it off. A look at four key states –- Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, and North Carolina –- highlights trends that helped trump clinch 278 electoral votes (and counting). CONT. […] Read more »
How the faithful voted: A preliminary 2016 analysis
The 2016 presidential exit polling reveals little change in the political alignments of U.S. religious groups. Those who supported Republican candidates in recent elections, such as white born-again or evangelical Christians and white Catholics, strongly supported Donald Trump as well. Groups that traditionally backed Democratic candidates, including religious “nones,” Hispanic […] Read more »