In 2016 I worked with two very different types of data sources: public and private. I used public polling and prediction markets data to predict the outcome of the 51 Electoral College (46 or 47 of 51), 34 Senatorial (31 or 32 of 34), 435 House (TBD), and 12 Gubernatorial […] Read more »
Polls got Clinton right; they got Trump wrong
One of the big stories of the 2016 presidential election is just how wrong the polls were. The surveys in the final days of the campaign settled on Hillary Clinton defeating Donald Trump by around four points and winning a solid majority of Electoral College votes. The votes are still […] Read more »
Eight Things We Learned in This Election
The unique and fascinating 2016 presidential election will be reviewed, analyzed and dissected for years. In the short term, here are eight things we learned from the American people’s perspective as the campaign progressed. CONT. Frank Newport, Gallup Read more »
5 Theories Of Why The Polls Failed So Hard
As Nov. 8 dawned, it all seemed so clear: National polls predicted that Hillary Clinton would prevail. Polls conducted at the state level, meanwhile, indicated that a “blue firewall” of Democratic-leaning states would comfortably propel her to victory in the electoral college. … But in states with close battles, where […] Read more »
The Rundown on Latino Voter Election Eve Polling and Latino Exit Polls
On a press call and webinar held today, Matt Barreto, UCLA Professor of Political Science and Chicano Studies, and Co-Founder of Latino Decisions, presented the results of the Latino Decisions Election Eve poll. The key finding: Latinos backed Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump by a 78-19% margin. Barreto also highlighted […] Read more »
What A Difference 2 Percentage Points Makes
Here’s the Electoral College map we’re going to end up with, assuming that every uncalled state goes to the candidate leading in the vote count there as of 4 p.m. Eastern time on Wednesday. There’s a sea of red for President-elect Donald Trump. He earned 306 electoral votes and became […] Read more »