… If we look at the national popular vote much has already been made of the fact that Clinton actually won more votes than Trump. The count is ongoing so exact figures will change even if this fact itself will not. … My initial reading of these numbers is that […] Read more »
USC Dornsife/L.A. Times ‘outlier’ poll rings true as Donald Trump wins
Ever since the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Presidential Election Daybreak Poll debuted in July, media observers have labeled it an “outlier”: Its results differed from those of other polls, regularly reporting positive numbers for Donald Trump. The poll, led by USC’s Arie Kapteyn and Jill Darling, has piqued interest and […] Read more »
The Clintons were undone by the middle-American voters they once knew so well
Few Americans knew the voters who rejected Hillary Clinton better than her husband. He lived among them growing up, and then studied them with a fanatical intensity during his political rise. But now, with any notion of a dynasty dead and gone, one explanation for the stunning political demise of […] Read more »
The Polls and Predictors Were Off, But Not By as Much as it Seems
Going into Election Day, political forecasters predicted the most likely outcome was a victorious Hillary Clinton, a Democratic Senate, and the House still firmly in Republican hands. Instead, Donald J. Trump emerged as the 45th president of the United States, while the GOP managed to hold on to both houses […] Read more »
Donald Trump’s Victory Was Built on Unique Coalition of White Voters
… One of the biggest upsets in American political history was built on a coalition of white voters unlike that of any other previous Republican candidate, according to election results and interviews with voters and demographic experts. Mr. Trump’s coalition comprised not just staunchly conservative Republicans in the South and […] Read more »
Why 2016 election polls missed their mark
The results of Tuesday’s presidential election came as a surprise to nearly everyone who had been following the national and state election polling, which consistently projected Hillary Clinton as defeating Donald Trump. Relying largely on opinion polls, election forecasters put Clinton’s chance of winning at anywhere from 70% to as […] Read more »