America is being shaped irreversibly by a growing new majority of millennials, racial minorities, immigrants and secular people. So how did the presidential election produce such a reactionary result, surprising all the pollsters, including me? “Shy” Tories and Brexiters apparently upended Britain. Did “shy” Trump voters upend America? To understand […] Read more »
No, Voter Turnout Wasn’t Way Down From 2012
Stories are still circulating a week after the election that turnout fell sharply from 2012. That’s almost certainly not true. The confusion is the result of news outlets trying to pin down voter turnout figures quickly in a system that doesn’t count millions of votes until weeks after the election. […] Read more »
Unlike other Latinos, about half of Cuban voters in Florida backed Trump
In Florida, Cubans were about twice as likely as non-Cuban Latinos to vote for Donald Trump. More than half (54%) supported the Republican president-elect, compared with about a quarter (26%) of non-Cuban Latinos, according to National Election Pool exit poll data. CONT. Pew Read more »
4 Possible Reasons The Polls Got It So Wrong This Year
If you followed the presidential polls at all closely, chances are that you expected Hillary Clinton to win last week. So did all of the major prediction models that use polls to game out election outcome probabilities. … Pollsters will be digging for months (at least) to figure out how […] Read more »
Presidential Forecast Post-Mortem
“All models are wrong,” the statistician George Box once said. This year was no exception. On Oct. 18, a model built by Donald J. Trump’s campaign gave him an 8 percent chance of winning, Bloomberg has reported. At that point in the race, The Upshot’s model gave him the same […] Read more »
The unheard winning economic agenda
Last week, the American people were determined to vote for change – change that would crash the dominance of special interests over government and bring bold economic policies so the economy would work for everyone, not just the wealthy and well-connected. That narrative underlines why Donald Trump received an audience […] Read more »