As part of its biennial Monopoly Politics series on the overriding dominance of partisanship in controlling the outcomes of American congressional elections, FairVote today released its initial projections for its Monopoly Politics 2014 report. … Underscoring the remarkable degree of partisan bias existent in our congressional election system, FairVote projects […] Read more »
Too Early to Know Whether Democrats Will Fall Prey to Second-Term Jinx
This early in the 2014 congressional midterm-election cycle, it’s impossible to know what the election will be about—whether there will be a wind in favor of either party and, if so, what the velocity and impact will be. Recently, we have had three back-to-back wave elections, with 2006 and 2008 […] Read more »
Still Too Soon to Say Which Theme Will Dominate Midterm Elections
… At this point, there are two competing theories on what theme will dominate the 2014 congressional elections. The one that seems to have become the conventional wisdom is that Republicans will continue to have problems with perception of their brand—specifically with younger, minority, female, and moderate voters. The other […] Read more »
Will Health Care Be Sleeper Issue Of 2014?
Washington is currently consumed with guns and immigration, but come 2014 it’s possible that health care will be the more all-consuming issue, and that has lots of Democrats very worried. After five years of demagoguery, political spin and hyperbole on both sides of the debate, the Affordable Care Act is […] Read more »
Midterm Elections Unlikely to Alter Party Balance
Like the current shape of divided government here? Didn’t think so. Well, get used to the combination of a Republican House with a Democratic Senate and White House. It’s likely to remain that way for the next four years, not just two. [cont.] John Harwood, New York Times Read more »
Is the House in Play? A District-by-District Assessment
Three weeks ago, I discussed whether the House is likely to flip control next year by looking at historical trends and “big picture” questions. Those trends show that the Democrats’ task is a challenging one. But as the past two cycles have shown, rules are made to be broken. So […] Read more »